Melbourne Cup Preview

As always in the Melbourne Cup, the Race that Stops a Nation brings many different horses with many different form lines, making it nigh impossible to line them up and compare them to each other.    I've attempted  below to help out, but my advice, go for winning or near-winning form and stick to your guns, be it colour, name, jockey or whatever it is that attracts you.    Here are my thoughts.

And here is a link to Free Form and the full race list. http://www.racenet.com.au/form/race-form-race-aap-nr.asp?venue=flem&mdate=011111&race=7

For the record, my early thoughts are:

Moyenne Corniche, At First Sight, and Red Cadeaux each way.

Trifecta - American, Dunaden, At First Sight, Red Cadeaux, Moyenne Corniche, Illo

Sentimental 5 dollars - Illo - to Give Bart Cummings his Baker's Dozen

1. Americain - The 2010 champion from France is back to defend his title and his stable suggest he is going as well as he was this time last year.    His authoritative win over 2500m with 58kg in the Mooney Valley Cup last weekend shows he loves racing in Australia, where he is now 3 wins from 3 races.    The 2 concerns, 1 or 2 opposition had his measure in the European races, and 58kg in the Melbourne Cup can be an impost.   OUR TIP - Top 8

2. Jukebox Jury - This horse is arguably the best-credentialed of all of the overseas horses, having won 2 Groups 1, placed in 2 Group 1s, and interestingly, boasting wins over Americain, Red Cadeaux, Dunaden and Manighar.   Does the best European horse always turn out to be the best Melbourne Cup performer, definitely not.   However this horse may well be one that does.  This fellow looks like he will lead, so definitely one for those that like to follow a leader.    OUR TIP - Middle 8

3. Dunaden - The second of the French raiders, this horse has followed in the footsteps so far of what Americain did last year.   He ventured down to the Geelong Cup got right back to last and flew home very impressively beating the likes of Tanby, who of course has since franked that form by winning the Bendigo Cup.  Another of those who in Europe has not got very close to the front-running Jukebox Jury.  Get's weight relief from the top 2.  OUR TIP - Top 8

4. Drunken Sailor - Was aimed at this race last year but has his problems and mishaps.   This year he has warmed up for the Melbourne Cup with an ok 7th in the Caulfield Cup.  His form in Europe is up there and if the pace is on and he gets a nice run from the good barrier, he is a rough chance.   OUR TIP - Middle 8

5. Glass Harmonium - This fellow was quite unlucky in the Cox Plate this year and really has not put in a bad run since he moved to Australia, including winning the Eagle Farm Cup and placing in the Brisbane Cup behind Tullamore.    His form in Europe was respectable, and he was most impressive on Saturday in taking out the Mackinnon Stakes in a start to finish effort.  From Barrier 23, he will most likely lead.   OUR TIP - Bottom 8

6. Manighar - This one ticks a lot of boxes.  Last year he ran 7th in the Melbourne Cup after finishing top 5 in the Caulfield Cup.    His form since in Europe has been sound, including most recently a close up 4th to Jukebox Jury over 3000m in France.    He again ran well in the Caulfield Cup this year, finishing 4th.   His trainer knows what he is doing, and Damien Oliver sticks with him.  If you want value, one to consider.   OUR TIP - Top 8

7. Unusual Suspect - An import from America, this fellow's form is hardest to line up.    Since debuting in Australia this Spring, he has been getting better as the races get longer. In the Caulfield Cup he struck traffic and struggled to get moving until the race was over, finishing a credible 6th.  Another nice roughie if chasing value.   OUR TIP -  Middle 8

8. Fox Hunt - Jukebox Jury's lesser performed stable mate, who recently took out the German St Leger over 2800m.  Whilst is form is ok, he does appear to lack the class of a few of the other European horses.  OUR TIP - Bottom 8

9. Lucas Cranach - This horse has had little luck since moving to Australia from Germany a few months ago, yet still managed to run an eye-catching 5th in the Caulfield Cup after suffering from a cracked hoof leading into the race.   Corey Brown and Lee Freedman (and Anthony Freedman) combine with this fellow.    A 4 times winner over 2400m in Germany, the extra distance does not appear like it will be a bother.    OUR TIP - Top 8

10. Mourayan - This fellow was arguably the 6th in line horse from the Hickmott - Lloyd Williams camp, however good form and lack of luck for a few his stablemates has seen this one sneak in under the radar.     His runs to date in Australia suggest he will stay all day. Will he have the class?   God question, but his run in the Mackinnon yesterday suggests he has improved this Spring.   He pulled up slightly lame after his 2nd place in the Mackinnon.  OUR Tip - Middle 8

11. Precedence - This 6yo Bart Cumming's gelding is a query runner.  His form on paper does not look as strong this year, but he did run a very credible 8th in the 2010 Melbourne Cup after settling near the rear of the field.     He shares the same trainer, owners and colours as Viewed, so dismiss him at your peril.    OUR TIP - Bottom 8

12. Red Cadeaux - Local jockey - tick.  Form behind some of the best stayers in Europe Tick.  5 wins over 2400-2800m tick.  This one has form behind Jukebox Jury, but gets a significant weight advantage.  He also has form in front of Moyenne Corniche, who has subsequently won the EBOR in England and run an eye-catching 3rd behind Shewan and Tanby in the Herbert Power at Flemington. OUR TIP - Top 8

13. Hawk Island - This 7yo gelding is a very nice local Sydney Stayer who has solid recent form finishing 2nd in the Hill Stakes behind Trusting, and 2nd behind his stable mate, the Verminator, in the Metropolitan - 2400m at Randwick.  At his only previous trip over 3200m, he failed to finish after falling.  His recent return to form since his fall gives him a rough chance, but unless it rains, this fellow may struggle to match it with this lot over this distance.  OUR TIP - Bottom 8

14. Illo - The Master Bart Cummings' 2nd runner in this year's cup is another German Import.   He had his first Australian run last weekend, when he ran a very tough (and somewhat unlucky) 3rd behind Americain and Tullamore, after being stuck 3 and 4 wide for a good part of the race.   He has form behind the very best stayers in Europe, including a recent 2nd behind the Arc De Triomphe winner.   OUR TIP - Top 8

15. Lost in the Moment -  This runner is Arguably the 2nd of this year's Godolphin's representatives, which doesn't always  mean they don't perform well.  Think Central Park and Give the Slip.  He has some form around horses in the race as well as a 2nd in the Goodwood Cup, 3000m.   He should stay the trip, but may lack the dash required to win a Melbourne Cup.  OUR TIP - Bottom 8

16. Modun - Godolphin have reportedly purchased this horse with this very race in mind.   His form in England whilst sound, may be just below what is required. However he is a recent winner of the September Stakes in England, and winning form is good form.  OUR TIP - Middle 8

17. At First Sight - Formerly a pacemaker in England (mostly), this horse has continued to improve at every start this Spring since migrating here earlier this year.  Most recently, he ran a slashing 2nd to his stable mate Tanby (Bendigo Cup).  He is sure to settle back in the field, but if the breaks go his way, he should have the stamina to find the finish line well.    He does have a 2nd in the Epsom Derby to his name.   OUR TIP - Top 8

18. Moyenne Corniche - Winner of the 2011 EBOR in England over 2800m, this horse has only won 2 of his 26 career starts.  However the EBOR is usually a good form reference for the Melbourne Cup, and his first run in Australia was an absolute eye-catcher, coming from the clouds to finish 2nd behind two form horses in Shewan and Tanby.   From Barrier 17, he will most likely settle a long way back and will need a very good ride and every bit of his share of luck.    A nice light-weight hope.   OUR TIP - Top 8

19. Saptapadi - Stablemate to Moyenne Corniche, however his form since arriving in Australia for his tilt at the Melbourne Cup has been a slightly below par, albeit without having a lot of luck.  His best may be just behind his stable mate, but this fellow does give every indication he will run the trip right out.  OUR TIP - Middle 8  

20. Shamrocker - This 4yo mare was the star 3yo of the 2011 Autumn, taking out the AJC Derby against the boys.    However her form in open class this Spring has been somewhat lacklustre.  Would need to lift considerably, but if she did, could cause a boil over.    OUR TIP - Bottom 8

21. The Verminator -  This up and coming stayer from Sydney has been progressing nicely en route to the Melbourne Cup, having taken out the Wyong Cup and the Metropolitan Hcap in Sydney (2400m).  He is in form, has a nice barrier.  Can he stay the trip - if he can, this one would not shock.  OUR TIP - Middle 8

22. Tullamore - Gai Waterhouse's first choice cup runner, this bloke is the reigning Brisbane Cup champion, ran 2rd in the Caulfield Cup 2 weeks ago, and last week ran a nice 2nd to defending Melbourne Cup champion, Americain (Mooney Valley Cup).    Will he have the stamina to hold this field out? His Jockey Chris Munce, a master at riding stayers, will give him every hope.   OUR TIP - Middle 8

23. Niwot - Burst into Melbourne Cup contention with a breath-taking display in the Lexus on the weekend.    This fellow has won over 3200m at Flemington, albeit in much weaker company, and if you like the Lexus form (Think Shocking and Brew), then this one is for you.    He has had his share of injuries, but if you believe in fairytales, this is your horse.  OUR TIP - Bottom 8

24. Older than Time - Gai Waterhouse's second string horse (according to me), this horse has shown she can stay, when a solid 2nd in the 2011 Sydney Cup earlier this year. Does she have the class though against the very best?  Barrier 20 will make her job harder.   OUR TIP - Bottom 8